One Bottle, Two Prices ($600519.SH)

600519.SS (pass): Kweichow Moutai has shifted from a growth compounder to a high-dividend cash cow, yet at roughly 20x 2025 earnings and a near-4% yield, the shares imply 4.5% perpetual growth — a scenario assigned only a 20% probability. The base case is flat profit and an eventual 11-13x multiple, enough to produce losses over five to ten years; even the favorable “China exception” yields only 7-8% annually over 20 years with dividends reinvested.

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